10 day forecast on my weather channel app for Ely:

Wed Sept 10 - 70% chance of rain, hi 59
Thu Sept 11 - 20% chance of rain, hi 53
Fri Sept 12 - 60% chance of rain, hi 52

Sure it can be right but then of course if could also be wrong. Its still a week out and a lot can change in a week.

No matter what the weather reports say I always plan for rain, cold, and heat all on the same trip.

I'm going up next week, and the forecast was for 60's as a high and 40'-50's for lows, including one day low of 33....at least the bugs may disappear..

quote Longpaddler: "I'm going up next week, and the forecast was for 60's as a high and 40'-50's for lows, including one day low of 33....at least the bugs may disappear.."

No bugs and fewer people.....September trips are the best. Hopefully the forecast for rain will change.

That's a little scary. I remember skinny dipping with my wife a couple of years ago on Long Lake, in October! Warm and sunny.

I planned to go in early October, I may now have to bump up that trip. Agreed that post-labor day trips are the best.

It doesn't matter if it rains or not to me. It seems you wake up to wet tents and tarps no matter what with the heavy dew and such. I'm excited for next week too. 13 days of Q.

quote jdevries: "10 day forecast on my weather channel app for Ely:

Wed Sept 10 - 70% chance of rain, hi 59
Thu Sept 11 - 20% chance of rain, hi 53
Fri Sept 12 - 60% chance of rain, hi 52"

Yes. Haven't put the time into this right now but a quick glance shows it may be too warm and the rain MAY be mixed with snow.
Post what your app gives for Ely later this PM ( it will be using 7am data available just an hour or 2 ago rather then old stuff from last evening)-- it's likely based on the US Domestic Weather Model-- the GFS-- and should cool even more.

The European model (usually the go-to Model at this time range) also shows a very large trough moving over South Central Canada. The specifics will not be known for days,, but an 80% chance right now of much below normal temps and chances of precip-- esp Wed/Thurs/

This is not a forecast-- but does tell the story.

quote jdevries: "10 day forecast on my weather channel app for Ely:

Wed Sept 10 - 70% chance of rain, hi 59
Thu Sept 11 - 20% chance of rain, hi 53
Fri Sept 12 - 60% chance of rain, hi 52"

Just checked weather.com and the prediction is for much less rain on those days. - just goes to show it changes - especially when we are a full week out.

Sept 10-50%
Sept 11-20%
Sept 12-20%

If a trip is planned, I just go and if it is too bad - I come out early or enjoy a few relaxing days in the tent reading or sleeping.

those highs are perfect trip temps...for me anyway.

Looks like they pushed up the timing of that cold front another day, 72 on Monday, then 60, 59, 52, 50.

As long as it's above zero I'll be happy. :) Like Jan says, great trippin' weather... or something like that.

Things looking even colder then #'s posted above. I would personally forecast 40's for Thursday/Friday for highs in N.MN-- but that is just me. See the paragraph below. Fri early AM may see a wet mix.But remember-- the water temps will make it feel much warmer then what a warm spell feels like in May. I would guess water temps are still in the upper 50's to low 60's??

Most times with major cold/warm waves modeled in the long range-- auto forecasts and even human forecasts don't go with the "raw" model data if it deviates too much from climo normals. That is exactly what you see in this situation-- and most will scramble by late this wk-end to "catch up" to the coolness (this is not COLD-- that comes in D-J-F :O) imho

From the morning NWS Duluth forecast discussion pertaining to next week;
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MIGHT SEE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES
WITH WET AND CLOUDY WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THIS
PERIOD IS 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. I LOWERED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WE MIGHT NEED TO DO SO MUCH MORE WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HIGHS COULD DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY
THURSDAY AS A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS GRADUALLY SHIFTS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

Noaa 7 day fcast for Ely Keep track and watch those #'s late next week.


CPC is finally catching on.

Ok... swimsuit comes out of the packing pile and the down booties go in instead!

Today it is the morning of Friday Sept 5. Yesterday was the first day I have seen this year of a big-time Monarch migration. They were all seriously on the move through the Twin Cities. I haven't seen so many in one day in a long time.

Those guys know what is up, and in my experience always travel ahead of a front, picking up favorable winds, and always stay just ahead of the cold. Incredible, their timing is impeccable. For me, summer 2014 officially ended yesterday.

Well - this was enough for us to push back on our trip. We were scheduled to go in mid week and are now waiting until the weekend. Thankfully permits were not an issue.

Hope the cold front does not affect the fishing too much. Thoughts?

I see now that NWS forecast for Ely for next Friday has a High of 47F. (listed above). May not be cool enough.
From NWS Duluth afternoon forecast discussion-
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
FURTHER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 40S OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER LATE NEXT WEEK SO FUTURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO NUDGE HIGHS DOWNWARD.

Would not be surprised if they mention the "S" word in coming forecasts as that is looking more and more likely. Of course it would melt on contact with the warm ground.

After looking at more data-- I'am about 70% convinced that somewhere in the Arrowhead on 9/11-9/12 (next Thursday into Friday) will see snowfall. IF it accumulates at all (and if someone is around to measure it) -- it will set a record for earliest measurable snowfall in MN which is--

Earliest measurable snow 0.3 inch (1 cm) September 14, 1964 International Falls

earliest trace (less then .1) has gone by-

Earliest recorded snow Trace August 31, 1949 Duluth

just so you know that I am not crazy-- here is the projected snowfall on the ground by Fri morning the 12th... the ground will melt most,, but still -- likely record breaking.

Thank you WW for the update.

It is incredibly helpful to have this info ahead of time for trips during that period. It is especially helpful for me as I am trying to organize two other people with their gear/clothing choices. This gives me a better idea on what we will need to bring.

Just thankful snowshoes aren't going to be necessary!

Things are starting to get interesting. System seems to be getting stronger with more moisture available. This may prevent serious accumulation of snowfall for most of MN (see EURO snowfall map below) as storms this time of year that ramp up on moisture have a tough time pulling cold enough air far enough south to produce snowfall.

Two models to watch- the very trusty European (mentioned above) and the US model that is pretty good also-- the GFS. The choice is up to you. Things should get more dialed in by Monday as the system comes ashore in the Pac NW.

Here is the Euro snowfall map--

Here is the Euro rain map -- 2-3" of rain in the BW at temps in the upper 30's= YUCK.

And the GFS snowfall map--




Stay tuned.

I'm going in on Saturday so hoping things clear up by then. Saturday looks good so far.....

Had a trip planned to the area for next weekend but luckily are able to postpone it by a week. Going up the following weekend for some car camping/fishing on Crescent Lake. I've spent time in rain and 30's-40's and it is not something I want to do again.

quote lindylair: "Had a trip planned to the area for next weekend but luckily are able to postpone it by a week. Going up the following weekend for some car camping/fishing on Crescent Lake. I've spent time in rain and 30's-40's and it is not something I want to do again. "

When are you going to be at Crescent? I'm gonna be in that area end of Sept.,

I wish I could be up there....I love snow on a canoe trip.

no snow in sept, but some nice temps.

So are the Weatherunderground folks on acid or did the weather forecast change that quickly?
9/7/Ely long range forecast

Although friends and I cancelled our mini-camp event next weekend due to projected cold and snow forecast (girlfriend/wife decision) I'm back "in" for a solo event as it is on now my mind.

WW tell me the weather has changed for the better!

Rain, snow, or whatever--I will be steelhead and salmon fishing in Ontario next weekend.

quote MacCamper: "So are the Weatherunderground folks on acid or did the weather forecast change that quickly?
9/7/Ely long range forecast


Although friends and I cancelled our mini-camp event next weekend due to projected cold and snow forecast (girlfriend/wife decision) I'm back "in" for a solo event as it is on now my mind.


WW tell me the weather has changed for the better!"

it does seem to be changing. Will post later this PM with an update.

Can't wait to go next week, bring on the snow!

Today's model runs only add to the confusion.(system has sped up messing up timing) Things should get clearer by late tomorrow,, but as of now the system is drawing in much warmer air and timing is not prone to accumulating snowfall over N.MN. Main chance of snowfall would be during peak heating and still relative high sun angle on Wed afternoon-- still looks miserable,, but the chances of accumulating snowfall during the day in mid Sept in N.MN is not very high. A few tenths may fall THursday Am in the Arrowhead -- and the wk-end (next) is looking very nice (mid 50's for highs and partly cloudy).
Give a final map update tomorrow PM.

Thanks for the update WW. Either way I'll be a happy guy to be up there. If the gals choose to dress warm it will be a couples deal...if not I'll go a day early and make a nice solo loop.

Your updates are always appreciated and I understand how fickle the patterns can be.

and snow!

after looking at the 7pm Sun Night weather data that just came out and some of the "other" stuff" we weather geek looks at--- the Wind from the East and slightly NE at near Gale Force (+30mph sustained) should be the biggest factor in this system as most of the precip should fall as rain-- or a rain/mix late in the event. A -- 25-35mph sustained winds in falling precip with temps in the 40-50F is something people should know about this time of year. Not the event I had seen 3-4 days ago,, but still nothing to mess with in the Wilderness.

quote WhiteWolf: "Things are starting to get interesting. System seems to be getting stronger with more moisture available. This may prevent serious accumulation of snowfall for most of MN (see EURO snowfall map below) as storms this time of year that ramp up on moisture have a tough time pulling cold enough air far enough south to produce snowfall.


Two models to watch- the very trusty European (mentioned above) and the US model that is pretty good also-- the GFS. The choice is up to you. Things should get more dialed in by Monday as the system comes ashore in the Pac NW.


Here is the Euro snowfall map--


Here is the Euro rain map -- 2-3" of rain in the BW at temps in the upper 30's= YUCK.


And the GFS snowfall map--






Stay tuned. "

Very cool stuff. Where do you get these reports?

I have worked in the weather field for 16 years this Dec. Most I get from a private pay outlet-- but many are free and available on the web. 95% of what NOAA and the NWS use for weather forecasts/long term outlooks are GOVT sources paid for from taxes and free to the public-- the key is finding them.

Also-- understand that the above maps are not so accurate-- (3 days old). I will post what is very likely to transpire in map form later this PM.

As far as the major weather event for the middle to end of the work week for N.MN etc--- guidance is still having a very difficult time coming together on a consensus. Even the very reliable European is struggling imho. This is what it thinks will happen as far as accumulating snowfall;


a far cry from what it was seeing earlier and little to much change to take at face value. It has also cut way back on rainfall (under .50" for most areas in N.MN. Something I don't buy again.

The GFS also seems to be in la-la land with snowfall down into IA. I do think it may be on to something in N.MN-- but likely at lower accumulations then it is showing. It also shows slightly higher rainfall totals in the 3/4" range.


A blend of the two is probably more likely.

I see the NWS for ELY has gone to 41-42F for a high in Ely on Wednesday in rain. Thats nasty tripping weather. They also are going with higher rainfall totals-- but hitting hard the winds which will really be the biggest issue with temps in the low 40's.

WhiteWolf always welcome your weather reports, my trip to Lac LaCroix this weekend is going to be predicated upon the most recent outlook. Snow, rain, cold, high winds? hmmm may need to call it a season until next year.

quote KT: "WhiteWolf always welcome your weather reports, my trip to Lac LaCroix this weekend is going to be predicated upon the most recent outlook. Snow, rain, cold, high winds? hmmm may need to call it a season until next year. "

The weekend looks AWESOME now that system has sped up... Sunday may see some spotty showers,, but really no big deal.

And FWIW--- big warmup coming end of the month... Certainly will be Indian Summer for those that get first freeze/frost.

also-- one thing that can be learned here is that long range outlooks that have little or no human intervention will struggle when extremes present themselves-- case in point OP said Wed High 59 a week out. Looks like 41-42F now.

quote WhiteWolf: "And FWIW--- big warmup coming end of the month... Certainly will be Indian Summer for those that get first freeze/frost.

also-- one thing that can be learned here is that long range outlooks that have little or no human intervention will struggle when extremes present themselves-- case in point OP said Wed High 59 a week out. Looks like 41-42F now. "

Any insight on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of this week around the mid Gunflint Trail area? Will the high winds have moved on by then?

Could you give a little more information on the big warm up for the end of the month you posted about? I love cold weather and when you said that it made me cringe. How warm are we talking? Thanks

WhiteWolf -

Thanks for your insight info the forecast for this weekend. Because of you we were able to delay our trip from Wednesday (tomorrow) to Saturday, which looks much better.

Appreciate the help!

WW, what about my trip for June of 2015?





Kidding

quote luft: "

quote WhiteWolf: "And FWIW--- big warmup coming end of the month... Certainly will be Indian Summer for those that get first freeze/frost.


also-- one thing that can be learned here is that long range outlooks that have little or no human intervention will struggle when extremes present themselves-- case in point OP said Wed High 59 a week out. Looks like 41-42F now. "

Any insight on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of this week around the mid Gunflint Trail area? Will the high winds have moved on by then?"

Thursday until around noon should still be a little breezy out of the N-- but by late Thursday into Fri/SAT winds should not be much of an issue.

quote Alumacraft3: "Could you give a little more information on the big warm up for the end of the month you posted about? I love cold weather and when you said that it made me cringe. How warm are we talking? Thanks"

likely in the 5-10F range above normals for about the last week of Sept. This should be for the entire Upper Midwest and may stretch to the E Coast. It may even stretch in OCT. THE avg high in ELY is 60 and low of 40 for Sept 25th.

quote WhiteWolf: "

quote luft: "

quote WhiteWolf: "And FWIW--- big warmup coming end of the month... Certainly will be Indian Summer for those that get first freeze/frost.



also-- one thing that can be learned here is that long range outlooks that have little or no human intervention will struggle when extremes present themselves-- case in point OP said Wed High 59 a week out. Looks like 41-42F now. "

Any insight on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of this week around the mid Gunflint Trail area? Will the high winds have moved on by then?"

Thursday until around noon should still be a little breezy out of the N-- but by late Thursday into Fri/SAT winds should not be much of an issue."

Thank you so much for the answer! I can handle cold and wet but really wasn't excited about the gale force winds that were predicted.