The person who is off a combined score of zero days or the fewest days off wins. Tie breaker is if one person guesses a date exactly from one lake.
One lake is on the Ely side and one up the Gunflint. Both are listed on the Minnesota DNR Climatolgy Ice-out web site. This site will be the official ice out date site as they list it. Both lakes have Web cameras. Both have impartial observers if needed to confirm date of ice out(Hope both will accept this honor). Mr. Great Outdoors from Ely and Mocha on Gunflint lake. Shagawa usually is one of the first lakes with a early ice out date for the northeast on their list. The average date is April 27th. Gunflint lake is usually the last and ice disappears on May 7th.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Yeh thanks Mocha. I also wondered about adjusting my own guesses. I put some early dates. I will stick with my dates and probably end up eating ice cubes for doing so,with some massive ice chunks on the lakes still by my dates. I think we have to stay froze into our original dates,unless the individual will buy donuts for all of us around a camp fire, than we might considerate it.
Note: I have been on the Man chain and Carp lake area ice fishing as late as April 2, with still 3 feet of ice on the lake.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
I'm counting on the sun's angle continuing to the known variable that helps keep us close to the average. How about a week earlier than average in each case:
Shagawa - April 20 Gunflint - April 30
"You can observe a lot by watching." -- Yogi Berra
Thanks Great Outdoors. You can put in your dates as did Mocha. You both have what is called home court advantage,living right there and having this weather thing down pat.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Talking mid 50's by Wednesday in Ely. I see some people going very early on their dates. Must want to get that canoe wet.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
The 10 day forecast for Ely is way above average. They are predicting near 60 degrees a week from now. I am betting the trend will continue all month. Then cold and snow for late May fishing.
“What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.” Ralph Waldo Emerson...and...“Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading".
If some of the early guesses are right,maybe will make my first April trip.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
22 inches of ice March 10 on Brainerd local lakes. About 12 inches less than normal.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
I think after 6:00 PM today Tuesday there is a 1 day penalty for each day after this time.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
"WE", me and the hubby agree with 'ducks', so we'll have to clarify the time for the tie breaker! :)
April 2, at 2:30PM April 9, at 4:30PM
respectively.
Just grilled steaks for dinner wearing my shorts! ~ Mr. Hawbaker.
"Far more interesting than the chase itself is the observation, the study of the life histories of the strange and wonderful creatures of the wilderness." President Theodore Roosevelt
Your correct set a date and stick to it,with further deliberation and review, entries are closed as this moment in time. Your welcome to join this fall for the annual freeze up event.
HOHO bonus points are not allowed for early entries. Unless the bribes is worthwhile.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
The lake I was on today in north central(Mille Lac area) has been losing about 2 inches of ice a day. It is a small lake and it is down to 18 inches. Was about 24 to 26 inches at its thickest this winter. The lakes were covered with a lot of water yesterday but it has now sunk thru and water surfaces are fairly dry.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Been watching some of the ELY cams looking over lakes, and I keep seeing deer in the picture at one site. Was a buck earlier this winter at that site,wonder if he loss his antlers?
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Shagawa Lake looked interesting today along the ice road. The roads are filling up with water and the cracks are turning opaque in contrast to the dark ice. The cracks looked like reflections of the clouds.
The ice is still tight to the shore and no one appeared to be driving on the lake although the tracks on the launch look otherwise.
This time of year I have seen the ice thinner under the snowbanks along the ice row due to insulation from the snow. Looks from Ely web cams most of the snow is disappearing from Ely lakes. Any snow in the woods up there?
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Right now I would be surprised if ice on Shagawa lake is still around by April 1.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
I was on Burntside today with an ATV trout fishing. Travel is very good, but would not trust a full size vehicle. 16-17 inches of ice in the spots I fished the last two days. Fishing was rotten!!
I saw a young man driving off of Farm Lake this afternoon at the access in a Ford F150. It sounded like he was driving on broken glass as he crossed the lake. I also saw a canoe on top of a car going through town today. It looks like the Shagawa river is mostly open where Grant McMahon Blvd. crosses it. Not much run-off going over Kawishiwi falls today. All the snow just seemed to evaporate. The woods even seem a little dry for this time of year.
The Great Outdoors did you get a suntan out of it. I know one person got a good sunburn on a lake two days ago. Thanks for the update on the ice and fishing. Usually right now you would need a augar extension almost.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
That is really something on the thicknest of ice on Gunflint,that is what we have on the small lakes in the Brainerd-Mille lacs area. Gunflint had that late freeze than I suppose the snow you got insulated it. Been a weird year with freeze up dates and now melting. I seen the Sea Gull weather station registered 78 degrees today. You usually can figure the Ely-Gunflint ice out for lakes is about 10 days later than the Brainerd area lakes. The record ice out year 2010 was a year that ice out was close to disappearing the same from north central Minnesota to the border. Last year I was up Basswood lake area May 3rd and there were ice chunks floating around still. I think it looks like every body is going to be off multi-days on their guesses. Thanks for the update to us who wish we were up north along the border.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
This mornings low in my home town broke the days high record of 63 degrees.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
quote PINETREE: "The Great Outdoors did you get a suntan out of it. I know one person got a good sunburn on a lake two days ago. Thanks for the update on the ice and fishing. Usually right now you would need a auger extension almost." Sure did. I drilled through 19 inches of ice on Burnsides yesterday, soft all the way through, and appears to be honeycombed (candled) everywhere. There is absolutely no water on the ice, with a few exceptions being by shorelines where what little snow exists is melting. Talked to one other guy, and ice chips were coming up when he drilled his holes, which means it's crumbling. I wouldn't be surprised with the conditions as they are, and the weather forecast, if some small lakes were open by next Sunday (Shagawa included) unless we get some drastic drop in temp. I was going out fishing again today but decided against it, as I have never seen ice change like this in my lifetime.
Thanks for the ice update and the description of the softness to it TGO. I was considering walking out on Bass today to fish but after hearing that I think I will stay on shore. I hope nobody goes through.
Thanks Mocha It is windier than heck right now(30mph gusts) and temp mid 70's in my area. Ice is very black and moving away from shore in just the last few hours. I think about 9-10 inches left on small lakes. My checking with ruler is done.
I fought it,but I put my skiis downstairs just now. Thinking of putting my canoe rack on later.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Just returned from a ride around Lake Minnetonka, I bet the lake is 30% open. Should not be long now. Who knows, maybe it won't even freeze over next year. :)
rather than start a new thread i'm just gonna post photos and updated photos of various lakes. It's 8pm and still 76 degrees!
The narrows between Gunflint and Magnetic Lakes, March 18, 2012. if you open the photo you can see how dark the ice is on gunflint already. pretty windy tonigtt...can't wait to see how it looks in the morning.
Thanks for the update. I think once it gets dark from being wet and the ice sinking a little,the dark color absorbs more heat from the sun. Heard quite a few lakes south of St. Cloud are ice free or close to it. Also noticed many lakes that are ice free with historical records are beating their record by about 10 days.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Such a crazy and historical spring. Two weeks ago I woke up at Gunflint to 6 below zero and lots of I e and snow. Went dogsledding on the lake. It was great. Now winter is gone. I miss it but I don't.
“What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.” Ralph Waldo Emerson...and...“Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading".
A little of topic ,,, but Lutsen Moutain says they are open till April 15th,,, Guarenteed!!!. Somehow I think they are going to be closing by the end of the month,, if not sooner.
"What good fortune for governments that the people do not think."
— Adolf Hitler
I'm probably going to throw in the towell on my guesses for ice out on Shagawa and Gunflint Lakes Contest. New ones that don't count: Shagawa: March 23rd Gunflint: March 25th or 26th. (Burntside Lake too) Mocha, take a picture of yourself waterskiing past the Lodge next Sunday, and post it on the forum!! :)
Great Outdoors I think nobody is going to be close on their guesses. Zulu I might be one of those fishing out of the canoe in March. I was suppose to be winter camping and ice fishing the last week of March.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
What I find amazing about the Shagawa Ice out guesses is the person who writes features for the Ely Echo newspaper who calls themselves the Trout Whisperer. In the February 27 issue of the newspaper he predicted March 25th for the local Ely Echo ice out contest. I thought it was a typo and was supposed to be April 25th. He might be right on. I don't know how he knew to guess about 10 days earlier than the all time record. Was there long range forecasts predicting an unprecedented warm spell? I am still predicting a mid May snow storm.
quote Zulu: "What I find amazing about the Shagawa Ice out guesses is the person who writes features for the Ely Echo newspaper who calls themselves the Trout Whisperer. In the February 27 issue of the newspaper he predicted March 25th for the local Ely Echo ice out contest. I thought it was a typo and was supposed to be April 25th. He might be right on. I don't know how he knew to guess about 10 days earlier than the all time record. Was there long range forecasts predicting an unprecedented warm spell? I am still predicting a mid May snow storm."
Yes there must have been some long range trending data. The poster "WhiteWolf" said there was soon going to be temps 20 to 25 deg F higher than normal back on the morning of March 6th.
I wonder if that Trout Whisperer is the same person (Karl Seckinger) who wrote pieces for the Lake Co News Chronicle and blogs for the Star Tribune.
quote inspector13: "quote Zulu: "What I find amazing about the Shagawa Ice out guesses is the person who writes features for the Ely Echo newspaper who calls themselves the Trout Whisperer. In the February 27 issue of the newspaper he predicted March 25th for the local Ely Echo ice out contest. I thought it was a typo and was supposed to be April 25th. He might be right on. I don't know how he knew to guess about 10 days earlier than the all time record. Was there long range forecasts predicting an unprecedented warm spell? I am still predicting a mid May snow storm."
Yes there must have been some long range trending data. The poster "WhiteWolf" said there was soon going to be temps 20 to 25 deg F higher than normal back on the morning of March 6th.
I wonder if that Trout Whisperer is the same person (Karl Seckinger) who wrote pieces for the Lake Co News Chronicle and blogs for the Star Tribune.
" Work in the weather field,, and yes long range weather forecasters saw this epic warm up around the 6th,,,but we didn't think it would get to the extremes seen,, -- I think I said, "80's in iowa,, 70's S.MN and 60's N.MN."--- about 10F off in the N.MN -- and the duartion of this warmup was not seen and is something not experienced in most locations in history dating well back in to the 1800's. IF you look at my ice-out dates,, Shag April 3rd and Gunflint April 11th,, you can see I under estimated the warmth and duration. Btw-- down here in IA we have had 6 consecutive days at or above 80F. I doesn't appear likely at this time,, but a hard freeze with several hours in the 20's would be devastating to some vulnerable plants and trees.
"What good fortune for governments that the people do not think."
— Adolf Hitler
Some of the bays and shallow lakes are becoming ice free in the Mille lacs area. We got 1.25 inches of much needed rain last night also.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Too cloudy to see much in the south in this satellite pic from Saturday, but amazing to see how dark the NE MN lakes were already that day. Bald Eagle looks darn near open... and Gunflint looks darker than Shagawa. The Pagami Creek burn area is a very rich (wet?) color. (I can only wish.)
"You can observe a lot by watching." -- Yogi Berra
The Brainerd and Mille lacs area is the line of ice outs now. Various small lakes in the area are ice free or close to it. Going canoeing on local lakes tomorrow if the sun is out.
No basketball blizzards this year or for us old-old timers The 1965 St. Patrick’s Day blizzard that brought 10 to 15 inches of snow and drifts up to 25 feet high. That blizzard wiped out the pheasants in Minnesota.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
quote walleye_hunter: "Mocha/TGO- How are the lakes looking? Can I get my boat ready and plan on a 2 day trip to Sag March 30 & 31? " I wouldn't be surprised on the Sag trip. It's hard to see any shorelines today, the lakes are too foggy.
Mocha the web cam on Gunflint shows,at least seems that there is much more open water today and the ice is sitting low. What do you think? Two,three or how many days before it is out? Today many areas it was calm and the ice melt slowed down just a little. Night time temperatures still unbelieveable. They should be in the mid teens at night,but averaging 40 to 50 degrees plus for lows.
Shagawa web cam is stuck on a February date showing 3 fish houses on the lake.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Need a little sunshine and wind to finish the ice off. Been very cloudy and calm the last few days.
Mocha I can't see any ice in the web cam for Gunflint,at least what looks like ice? How far out is the ice?
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
The observer on the east side has spoken: Gunflint is ice free on March 23,beating the previous record of the year 2010 of April 2. That is 10 days ahead of the old record and the average ice out from 71 years data on this lake is May 6th. That's 44 days from now. Shagawa(hangs in there still ice coated)usually goes out on April 28th, 8 days earlier than Gunflint. Weird year.
Thanks Mocha.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
I hope nobody on this board bets on horses. I think the closest was April 9th and was off 17 days off. My guess of April 22 makes me off 30 days and were only half done.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
I think the lack of wind is holding back a lot of lakes. Today around home it was dead calm and foggy.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Only big lakes in Crow Wing county got much if any ice now. Looks like Moose lake from the web cam is losing most of its ice. Shagawa ice very soon? Today?
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Don't think today, or tomorrow, or the next day?????? Yesterday, things looked good for Shagawa being open by this morning, but the 25 degree overnight temps said "NO!" Dang it!!!!!!!
TGO>Thanks. I wondered if the cool down would effect it. It might be damaged enough it still might go soon. Hopeful thinking? Next weekend forecast for up by Ely I see are from being cool to in the 70's. Who knows.
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
I drove around Shagawa at noon, and it looks like it's all black, floating, honeycombed ice, and doesn't look too thick. A strong wind should take it out, but it's going to be cool again this evening, so?????????????????
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?
Sig: All of us our Dreamers. Dreams are what started everything. We our asking ourselves a great question? all of us interested in wilderness preservation are asking...What kind of world do we want.?