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Boundary Waters Quetico Forum Listening Point - General Discussion Official ice out guesses for Shagawa and Gunflint Lakes |
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04/17/2013 08:10AM
Lets have our ice out contest, with Shagawa Lake near Ely, and Gunflint Lake being the bodies of water.
I'll volunteer to judge the Shagawa ice out, and will volunteer Mocha to judge ice out on Gunflint Lake, if that's OK with the forum:
Here we go with the official TGO guess:
Shagawa Lake: May 15th
Gunflint Lake: May 22nd.
I'll volunteer to judge the Shagawa ice out, and will volunteer Mocha to judge ice out on Gunflint Lake, if that's OK with the forum:
Here we go with the official TGO guess:
Shagawa Lake: May 15th
Gunflint Lake: May 22nd.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
04/17/2013 11:06AM
I am going to predict dates that would set a record for both lakes.
Shagawa Lake - May 17th
Gunflint Lake - May 28th
Thanks to Mocha and The Great Outdoors for officiating this contest.
Does anyone remember ice out contests where you would guess when a jalopy that was placed on the ice would plunge through? My friends dad won a brand new Hi-Fi Record Console when he correctly guessed right one year in the 1960's.
I don't know why that practice was stopped. The old cars made great Crappie Cribs. :)
Shagawa Lake - May 17th
Gunflint Lake - May 28th
Thanks to Mocha and The Great Outdoors for officiating this contest.
Does anyone remember ice out contests where you would guess when a jalopy that was placed on the ice would plunge through? My friends dad won a brand new Hi-Fi Record Console when he correctly guessed right one year in the 1960's.
I don't know why that practice was stopped. The old cars made great Crappie Cribs. :)
04/17/2013 12:27PM
quote Zulu: "I am going to predict dates that would set a record for both lakes.
Shagawa Lake - May 17th
Gunflint Lake - May 28th
Thanks to Mocha and The Great Outdoors for officiating this contest.
Does anyone remember ice out contests where you would guess when a jalopy that was placed on the ice would plunge through? My friends dad won a brand new Hi-Fi Record Console when he correctly guessed right one year in the 1960's.
I don't know why that practice was stopped. The old cars made great Crappie Cribs. :)"
They did this in Hibbing as recently as 6-7 years ago. I do think they removed the car after it sank.
04/17/2013 01:11PM
quote gutmon: "quote Zulu: "I am going to predict dates that would set a record for both lakes.
Shagawa Lake - May 17th
Gunflint Lake - May 28th
Thanks to Mocha and The Great Outdoors for officiating this contest.
Does anyone remember ice out contests where you would guess when a jalopy that was placed on the ice would plunge through? My friends dad won a brand new Hi-Fi Record Console when he correctly guessed right one year in the 1960's.
I don't know why that practice was stopped. The old cars made great Crappie Cribs. :)"
They did this in Hibbing as recently as 6-7 years ago. I do think they removed the car after it sank."
I think your thinking of Chisholm. I believe they switched from a vehicle to a giant bobber looking object a few years ago.
"The world is big, and I want to get a good look at it before it gets dark". John Muir
04/17/2013 02:14PM
quote rupprider: "quote gutmon: "quote Zulu: "I am going to predict dates that would set a record for both lakes.
Shagawa Lake - May 17th
Gunflint Lake - May 28th
Thanks to Mocha and The Great Outdoors for officiating this contest.
Does anyone remember ice out contests where you would guess when a jalopy that was placed on the ice would plunge through? My friends dad won a brand new Hi-Fi Record Console when he correctly guessed right one year in the 1960's.
I don't know why that practice was stopped. The old cars made great Crappie Cribs. :)"
They did this in Hibbing as recently as 6-7 years ago. I do think they removed the car after it sank."
I think your thinking of Chisholm. I believe they switched from a vehicle to a giant bobber looking object a few years ago."
You are correct, sir.
04/17/2013 03:03PM
in 1996 ice when out on seagull & sag may 16th and may 17th , and tonka went out april 24th that year, my group cancelled may 10th entry and reserved 1 for may 17th, so thats what i'm hoping for.
keep your line wet, good things will happen
04/17/2013 04:31PM
Given the shade from the new monster bird-slaughtering cell tower on the Fernberg, I'd have to guess Shagawa won't clear before May 16 and Gunflint May 17. Lakes to the north of this tower would stay ice covered forever except for the heating effect of the Kawishiwi River which is now already spoiled because of the possibility of underground mining resuming in the area in ten years.
04/17/2013 05:27PM
quote PINETREE: "Last year we had a problem with a lot of late entries so a deadline date to enter should be established. Like 10 days or less or whatever Great Outdoors and your side-kick Mocha think it should be."
Good idea!
Why don't we make it midnight, April 30th!
No more guesses or changing dates after that.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
04/17/2013 06:08PM
wcco just did a nice report on minnetonka ice out(1996 ice out was april 24th) right now open water around some shoreline w/12"-18" of ice, 1 week ago 18"-24" the earliest ice out was 1878 march 11th the latest was 1858 may 8th.... and park rapids has 30" of ice right now....comparing 1996 to this year the opener off the gunflint will be doubtful, the following weekend should be a killer for lake trout YA BABY ! ely much better chance of open lakes on the 11th, off the gunflint reserve your permits for the 17th we did :>)
keep your line wet, good things will happen
04/18/2013 01:34PM
quote Stumpy: "Shagawa Lake.......May 24, 2:30 PM
Gunflint Lake......June 1, 2:30 PM
Toss out any guesses that I've made on other threads."
Well I guess if your right I better cancel my permit for up the Gunflint I have for the end of May. We all know Stumpy is always right on.
04/18/2013 02:10PM
June 4th.
June 11th.
June 11th.
“What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.” Ralph Waldo Emerson...and...“Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading".
04/18/2013 02:38PM
quote shock: "wcco just did a nice report on minnetonka ice out(1996 ice out was april 24th) right now open water around some shoreline w/12"-18" of ice, 1 week ago 18"-24" the earliest ice out was 1878 march 11th the latest was 1858 may 8th.... and park rapids has 30" of ice right now....comparing 1996 to this year the opener off the gunflint will be doubtful, the following weekend should be a killer for lake trout YA BABY ! ely much better chance of open lakes on the 11th, off the gunflint reserve your permits for the 17th we did :>)"Cross your fingers and pray for the 17th, that might even be optimistic.
" I want to know Gods thoughts , The rest are details " Albert Einstein. WWJD
04/18/2013 03:42PM
quote bassnut: "May 10 for Moss-Duncan.....i hope"
Last year 2012 I was fishing lake trout on Moss on March 29th before season closed. About half the lake had floating ice and we trolled around it. Lakes like West Bearskin were still solid ice than.
04/18/2013 03:44PM
quote burntsider: "Given the shade from the new monster bird-slaughtering cell tower on the Fernberg, I'd have to guess Shagawa won't clear before May 16 and Gunflint May 17. Lakes to the north of this tower would stay ice covered forever except for the heating effect of the Kawishiwi River which is now already spoiled because of the possibility of underground mining resuming in the area in ten years."
One thing your consistent with your opinions.
04/18/2013 05:39PM
quote greenydd: "what makes the ice out later on the gunflint than in ely? "
Some of that is more deeper lakes on average up the Gunflint, which ice usually goes out a little later, usually a little more snow cover for a longer time so it might be a few degrees cooler longer, and does lake Superior make a difference in the spring and keep it cooler?
04/18/2013 06:48PM
quote greenydd: "what makes the ice out later on the gunflint than in ely? "
Shagawa Lake is a smaller than Gunflint Lake, so it will be ice free earlier (or should be).
We just picked two lakes, one on each end of the Bdub.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
04/18/2013 08:20PM
quote PINETREE: "quote Stumpy: "Shagawa Lake.......May 24, 2:30 PM
Gunflint Lake......June 1, 2:30 PM
Toss out any guesses that I've made on other threads."
Well I guess if your right I better cancel my permit for up the Gunflint I have for the end of May. We all know Stumpy is always right on."
I won't be right...I just wanted to pick a June date.
As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly
04/18/2013 11:42PM
quote PINETREE: "quote greenydd: "what makes the ice out later on the gunflint than in ely? "
Some of that is more deeper lakes on average up the Gunflint, which ice usually goes out a little later, usually a little more snow cover for a longer time so it might be a few degrees cooler longer, and does lake Superior make a difference in the spring and keep it cooler?"
Overall -- the climate gets cooler the further E you go into the Arrowhead-- LAke Superior. Now-- not the extremes that I-FAlls get but the coldest avg yearly temperature I BELIEVE is at Gunflint Lake or Pigeon River. Avg spring temps are noticeable cooler in GM (use Cook CTY Airport) then I-FALLS.
The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.
04/19/2013 05:29PM
Three factors cause later ice-out dates in the eastern BWCA:
1. Proximity to the heat-sink effect of Lake Superior, which delays warm-up.
2. Greater snowfall/snow depth in spring (reflects more sunlight, keeps ice insulated)
3. Higher elevation above sea-level (a small influence)
1. Proximity to the heat-sink effect of Lake Superior, which delays warm-up.
2. Greater snowfall/snow depth in spring (reflects more sunlight, keeps ice insulated)
3. Higher elevation above sea-level (a small influence)
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.” -Edward Abbey
04/20/2013 09:37AM
quote halvorsonchristopher1: "Shagawa: May 19th
Gunflint: May 26th
I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?
"
"ICE BERG RIGHT AHEAD"
"I am haunted by waters"~Norman Maclean "A River Runs Through It"
04/20/2013 01:16PM
quote mooseplums: "quote halvorsonchristopher1:
I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?
"
"ICE BERG RIGHT AHEAD""
Solid Reference. But, is that a fair comparision?
If it is, Why would anyone want to paddle through a mine field?
Who has/will paddle through a ice debris filled lake?
04/20/2013 01:41PM
quote halvorsonchristopher1: "Shagawa: May 19thi also posted this pic on another ice out thread. may 9th 1992 from the rog portage looking into seagull, archives said ice when out may 8th we made it from end to end but it took some doing, we paddled through slushy's ,little chunks that sounded like wind chimes and had to break ice along an island to make it to the next open section but i'm sure if you got caught between 2 large ice flows and the wind picked up in an unfavorable direction it could be trouble.(every lake was open after that)
Gunflint: May 26th
I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?
"
keep your line wet, good things will happen
04/20/2013 05:03PM
quote halvorsonchristopher1: "Shagawa: May 19th
Gunflint: May 26th
I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?
"
No problem, just don't paddle after dark! :)
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
04/21/2013 01:51AM
quote The Great Outdoors: "quote halvorsonchristopher1:
I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?
"
No problem, just don't paddle after dark! :)"
Thanks, that's what I wanted to hear.
04/23/2013 04:25PM
i see we have 4 or 5 ice out threads going, i'm going to put a positive spin on this thread.?. in early may it can be warmer in the bw than in the cities i've experience a couple openers where it was 90 in the BW and 70's in the cities.i highly doubt open water on the opener(maybe some lakes in the ely area). but i think it can happen the next week sometime by may 17th. with the size and layout of gunflint lake add 7 days? compared to other lakes in that area. i'm liking friday may 17th for seagull/sag to be wide open. and 3 days in a row of above 32* with sun can knock down 3 feet of snow in a hurry. and the days are getting longer. YEH ! ;>)
keep your line wet, good things will happen
04/24/2013 05:09PM
so, here is an update on ice depth...
as of Tuesday evening april 23:
20 feet off the gunflint lake boat access: 36 inches of ice and about 2 feet of snow on top of the ice.
this test was done by the volunteer fire department so i'd say it's accurate.
today it was 40 degrees, chilly wind. and it's supposed to snow again tonight. so there you have it!
this is the lake that is used to paddle to entry 57 Magnetic lake (granite river route) and 58 South lake.
as of Tuesday evening april 23:
20 feet off the gunflint lake boat access: 36 inches of ice and about 2 feet of snow on top of the ice.
this test was done by the volunteer fire department so i'd say it's accurate.
today it was 40 degrees, chilly wind. and it's supposed to snow again tonight. so there you have it!
this is the lake that is used to paddle to entry 57 Magnetic lake (granite river route) and 58 South lake.
04/24/2013 05:18PM
quote Mocha: "so, here is an update on ice depth...
as of Tuesday evening april 23:
20 feet off the gunflint lake boat access: 36 inches of ice and about 2 feet of snow on top of the ice.
this test was done by the volunteer fire department so i'd say it's accurate.
today it was 40 degrees, chilly wind. and it's supposed to snow again tonight. so there you have it!"
Thanks for update.
Mille lacs area talking a high of 77 degrees Monday and a low of 53 degrees. That will create puddles.
04/24/2013 09:25PM
I say we are in uncharted territory here. Past years are no guide.
We have record snow in April, and the melt hasn't even really started. But, we have very warm temps coming at us, combined with long days, and high sun angle. The snow we have is for the most part quite fresh and will melt quickly, adding tons of water to the lakes.
My prediction, based on nothing more than wishful thinking, is that the melt will be shockingly fast. Open water in most places by May 12 (Shagawa too, and the big cold Arrowhead lakes like Gunflint maybe a week later (May 19).
We have record snow in April, and the melt hasn't even really started. But, we have very warm temps coming at us, combined with long days, and high sun angle. The snow we have is for the most part quite fresh and will melt quickly, adding tons of water to the lakes.
My prediction, based on nothing more than wishful thinking, is that the melt will be shockingly fast. Open water in most places by May 12 (Shagawa too, and the big cold Arrowhead lakes like Gunflint maybe a week later (May 19).
05/01/2013 07:42PM
quote Mocha: "not for the contest:
i'm thinking may 16 for Gunflint and May 13 for Shagawa
"
Sheryl,
The deadline for the guessing was midnight, April 30th.
However, since the judges like you, we will allow the guess! :)
All other guesses are officially sealed!!
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
05/02/2013 09:06PM
quote Mocha: "not for the contest:
i'm thinking may 16 for Gunflint and May 13 for Shagawa
North Brule river along the gunflint trail, same vantage point
april 20, 2013
april 27, 2013
may 1, 2013"
Nice Pictures Thanks Sheryl.
" I want to know Gods thoughts , The rest are details " Albert Einstein. WWJD
05/07/2013 10:14PM
Almost every lake in the Ely area is locked up with ice, and I don't expect even the small ones to be open this weekend unless they have water flowing into them.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
05/08/2013 06:11AM
gunflint lake may 7, 2013
gunflint and magnetic lakes may 7, 2013
cross river flowing into Ham lake may 7, 2013
Ham lake ice may 7,2013
snow on trail on the way in. may 7, 2013
spruce grouse momma
spruce grouse daddy
there was still quite a bit of ice on Ham lake, several mallards and 1 LOON!!! the more shaded areas still had plenty of snow, ankle deep and real sugary, but otherwise there was no snow.
lots of scat from wolves, rabbits, grouse; tracks from moose, wolves, fox.
the forecast is for snow/rain mix Friday and Saturday. that precip, combined with some wind would work magic on the ice. it's 41 already this morning.
gunflint and magnetic lakes may 7, 2013
cross river flowing into Ham lake may 7, 2013
Ham lake ice may 7,2013
snow on trail on the way in. may 7, 2013
spruce grouse momma
spruce grouse daddy
there was still quite a bit of ice on Ham lake, several mallards and 1 LOON!!! the more shaded areas still had plenty of snow, ankle deep and real sugary, but otherwise there was no snow.
lots of scat from wolves, rabbits, grouse; tracks from moose, wolves, fox.
the forecast is for snow/rain mix Friday and Saturday. that precip, combined with some wind would work magic on the ice. it's 41 already this morning.
05/08/2013 06:17AM
Our lake here in Northern Minnesota is opening up fast. I was awaken to the call of the loon all excited to be "home". Our normal ice out date is around the 20th of April, so less than 20 days late this year. It just seems so late because it's been over 30 days early a few years.
Nctry
05/08/2013 06:20PM
05/08/2013 06:49PM
quote Mocha: " gunflint lake may 7, 2013That second picture down is Spectacular.
gunflint and magnetic lakes may 7, 2013
cross river flowing into Ham lake may 7, 2013
Ham lake ice may 7,2013
snow on trail on the way in. may 7, 2013
spruce grouse momma
spruce grouse daddy
there was still quite a bit of ice on Ham lake, several mallards and 1 LOON!!! the more shaded areas still had plenty of snow, ankle deep and real sugary, but otherwise there was no snow.
lots of scat from wolves, rabbits, grouse; tracks from moose, wolves, fox.
the forecast is for snow/rain mix Friday and Saturday. that precip, combined with some wind would work magic on the ice. it's 41 already this morning. "
" I want to know Gods thoughts , The rest are details " Albert Einstein. WWJD
05/09/2013 09:33AM
quote Mocha: " gunflint lake may 7, 2013
gunflint and magnetic lakes may 7, 2013
cross river flowing into Ham lake may 7, 2013
Ham lake ice may 7,2013
snow on trail on the way in. may 7, 2013
spruce grouse momma
spruce grouse daddy
there was still quite a bit of ice on Ham lake, several mallards and 1 LOON!!! the more shaded areas still had plenty of snow, ankle deep and real sugary, but otherwise there was no snow.
lots of scat from wolves, rabbits, grouse; tracks from moose, wolves, fox.
the forecast is for snow/rain mix Friday and Saturday. that precip, combined with some wind would work magic on the ice. it's 41 already this morning. "
I look at those photo's and I get jealous and am not ashamed of it. Looks and sounds like beauty,peace,clean air and the sound of silence,except for nature.
Reason I brought it up I was in the woods this morning 0.25 to 0.5 miles from a major highway close to where I live. Here I am back in the woods,suppose to be quite and all I hear is car and truck noise and can smell exhaust fumes 0.5 miles away. We don't have the clean air smell we use to have.
Mocha you got all the good things up there.
05/12/2013 07:02PM
quote PINETREE: "quote The Great Outdoors: "That would mean ice out this Monday!
Ain't lookin' good!
You're close, but that won't count."
I got to midnight Monday. Yeh, I see it might get down to 21 degrees tonight. That won't help."
The bad news for you is, that TGO (the Judge Judy of ice out)hits the rack way earlier than that, so anything after 6 pm is considered the next day! :)
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
05/14/2013 11:11AM
05/14/2013 06:43PM
quote arctic: "Looks like my ice-out prediction for Shagawa was dead-on. How do I collect my check?"
For us Old Timers:
Yogi Berra says the game isn't over to it over.
Don't count your chickens until they hatch.
Your only half right so far. Your estimate for Gunflint lake was?
05/14/2013 09:21PM
quote PINETREE: "quote arctic: "Looks like my ice-out prediction for Shagawa was dead-on. How do I collect my check?"
For us Old Timers:
Yogi Berra says the game isn't over to it over.
Don't count your chickens until they hatch.
Your only half right so far. Your estimate for Gunflint lake was?"
I listed Gunflint Lake's ice-out as 20 May, so I'm still in the running for that one!
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.” -Edward Abbey
05/14/2013 09:44PM
quote PINETREE: "Shagawa ice free?"
It wasn't as of 3 this afternoon as a surprisingly large sheet of ice still existed on about 1/4th of the lake.
There were boats on it the last two days where the ice was out.
Should be ice free sometime tomorrow.
I'll check it before 7 am, then at noon to see what's happening.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
05/14/2013 09:49PM
quote arctic: "Looks like my ice-out prediction for Shagawa was dead-on. How do I collect my check?"
Sorry, close but no cigar! :)
Read the previous post.
I never thought it would make it through the day with the wind and heat we had.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Great-Outdoors-Bait-Tackle/1606420532911075?skip_nax_wizard=true
05/15/2013 05:15AM
at the narrows of gunflint and magnetic lakes looking south.
Gallagher's Island. still pretty thick ice in the main part of the lake. have to cross gunflint and magnetic to get to the granite river entry 57.
looking east down gunflint lake
gunflint lake from the narrows, looking southeast-ish.
gunflint lake this morning
it was very windy overnight, I thought for sure the lake would be free of ice this morning, but nope! looks like it hardly moved. it's going to be sunny and warm today, we're in a Red Flag warning in terms of wind (erratic and gusty) and the opportunity for fire to spread quickly.
Gallagher's Island. still pretty thick ice in the main part of the lake. have to cross gunflint and magnetic to get to the granite river entry 57.
looking east down gunflint lake
gunflint lake from the narrows, looking southeast-ish.
gunflint lake this morning
it was very windy overnight, I thought for sure the lake would be free of ice this morning, but nope! looks like it hardly moved. it's going to be sunny and warm today, we're in a Red Flag warning in terms of wind (erratic and gusty) and the opportunity for fire to spread quickly.
05/15/2013 05:50AM
quote Mocha: " at the narrows of gunflint and magnetic lakes looking south.
Gallagher's Island. still pretty thick ice in the main part of the lake. have to cross gunflint and magnetic to get to the granite river entry 57.
looking east down gunflint lake
Thanks for the update Mocha! That wind and the warm temps should get it done today I would hope.
gunflint lake from the narrows, looking southeast-ish.
it was very windy overnight, I thought for sure the lake would be free of ice this morning, but nope! looks like it hardly moved. it's going to be sunny and warm today, we're in a Red Flag warning in terms of wind (erratic and gusty) and the opportunity for fire to spread quickly."
I can be followed on Instagram @queticomike
05/15/2013 01:42PM
quote arctic: "Looks like my ice-out prediction for Shagawa was dead-on. How do I collect my check?"
Your prediction was right on the money.
Checked with my sources that spoke on condition of anonymity, and Shagawa Lake was ice free about 6-7 pm yesterday evening, after the big gusting wind attack that lasted about a half hour came through!
So congratulations PINETREE, your winning prize of absolutely nothing is in the mail!!
However, you must divide it into thirds and share it with Speckled and Arctic who also predicted May 14th.
YAHOOOOOOOOO!!! :)
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