BWCA Official ice out guesses for Shagawa and Gunflint Lakes Boundary Waters Listening Point - General Discussion
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The Great Outdoors
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04/17/2013 08:10AM  
Lets have our ice out contest, with Shagawa Lake near Ely, and Gunflint Lake being the bodies of water.
I'll volunteer to judge the Shagawa ice out, and will volunteer Mocha to judge ice out on Gunflint Lake, if that's OK with the forum:
Here we go with the official TGO guess:
Shagawa Lake: May 15th
Gunflint Lake: May 22nd.
 
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04/17/2013 08:29AM  
Shagawa: May 16
Gunflint: May 25
 
04/17/2013 08:31AM  
Shag- May 13
Gunflint- May 18
(I'm an optimist)
 
rupprider
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04/17/2013 08:32AM  
Shagawa: May 12
Gunflint: May 21
 
04/17/2013 08:41AM  
Shagawa: May 11
Gunflint: May 17
 
04/17/2013 08:46AM  
Shagwa May 18th
Gunflint May 26
 
04/17/2013 08:50AM  
quote mooseplums: "Shagwa May 18th
Gunflint May 26"


...damn Fall tripper.....
 
airmorse
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04/17/2013 08:54AM  
Shagawa: May 17
Gunflint: May 28
 
BananaHammock
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04/17/2013 09:12AM  
When this ice starts to go, it is going to go fast. Shag may 7th, gunflint may 13th and a high of 72º may 16th in ely.
 
04/17/2013 09:26AM  
May 13th for Shagawa and May 19th for Gunflint.
 
Speckled
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04/17/2013 09:28AM  
Shagwa - May 14th
Gunflint - May 19th
 
04/17/2013 09:29AM  
Last year we had a problem with a lot of late entries so a deadline date to enter should be established. Like 10 days or less or whatever Great Outdoors and your side-kick Mocha think it should be.

 
inspector13
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04/17/2013 09:38AM  
quote BananaHammock: "... and a high of 72º may 16th in ely."


Does this come with a money back guarantee? : )

 
04/17/2013 09:45AM  
Shagawa - May 9
Gunflint - May 12

JD
 
04/17/2013 10:00AM  
TGO (or other Elyites): Does White Iron usually have ice out before or after Shagawa?
 
BananaHammock
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04/17/2013 10:39AM  
quote inspector13: "
quote BananaHammock: "... and a high of 72º may 16th in ely."


Does this come with a money back guarantee? : )

"

No money back, but I will give it a lifetime limited warranty.
 
04/17/2013 11:06AM  
I am going to predict dates that would set a record for both lakes.

Shagawa Lake - May 17th
Gunflint Lake - May 28th

Thanks to Mocha and The Great Outdoors for officiating this contest.

Does anyone remember ice out contests where you would guess when a jalopy that was placed on the ice would plunge through? My friends dad won a brand new Hi-Fi Record Console when he correctly guessed right one year in the 1960's.
I don't know why that practice was stopped. The old cars made great Crappie Cribs. :)
 
bojibob
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04/17/2013 11:13AM  
Shagawa: May 15 (my original guess)
Gunflint: May 20
 
04/17/2013 12:27PM  
quote Zulu: "I am going to predict dates that would set a record for both lakes.


Shagawa Lake - May 17th
Gunflint Lake - May 28th


Thanks to Mocha and The Great Outdoors for officiating this contest.


Does anyone remember ice out contests where you would guess when a jalopy that was placed on the ice would plunge through? My friends dad won a brand new Hi-Fi Record Console when he correctly guessed right one year in the 1960's.
I don't know why that practice was stopped. The old cars made great Crappie Cribs. :)"


They did this in Hibbing as recently as 6-7 years ago. I do think they removed the car after it sank.
 
04/17/2013 12:49PM  
quote cowdoc: "
quote mooseplums: "Shagwa May 18th
Gunflint May 26"



...damn Fall tripper....."


:)
 
rupprider
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04/17/2013 01:11PM  
quote gutmon: "
quote Zulu: "I am going to predict dates that would set a record for both lakes.



Shagawa Lake - May 17th
Gunflint Lake - May 28th



Thanks to Mocha and The Great Outdoors for officiating this contest.



Does anyone remember ice out contests where you would guess when a jalopy that was placed on the ice would plunge through? My friends dad won a brand new Hi-Fi Record Console when he correctly guessed right one year in the 1960's.
I don't know why that practice was stopped. The old cars made great Crappie Cribs. :)"



They did this in Hibbing as recently as 6-7 years ago. I do think they removed the car after it sank."


I think your thinking of Chisholm. I believe they switched from a vehicle to a giant bobber looking object a few years ago.
 
04/17/2013 02:14PM  
quote rupprider: "
quote gutmon: "
quote Zulu: "I am going to predict dates that would set a record for both lakes.



Shagawa Lake - May 17th
Gunflint Lake - May 28th



Thanks to Mocha and The Great Outdoors for officiating this contest.



Does anyone remember ice out contests where you would guess when a jalopy that was placed on the ice would plunge through? My friends dad won a brand new Hi-Fi Record Console when he correctly guessed right one year in the 1960's.
I don't know why that practice was stopped. The old cars made great Crappie Cribs. :)"




They did this in Hibbing as recently as 6-7 years ago. I do think they removed the car after it sank."



I think your thinking of Chisholm. I believe they switched from a vehicle to a giant bobber looking object a few years ago."

You are correct, sir.
 
04/17/2013 02:17PM  
Shagawa May 21 Gunflint May 29
 
schweady
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04/17/2013 02:32PM  
Let's see... What's left?...

Shagawa Lake - May 20th
Gunflint Lake - May 24th
 
04/17/2013 03:03PM  
in 1996 ice when out on seagull & sag may 16th and may 17th , and tonka went out april 24th that year, my group cancelled may 10th entry and reserved 1 for may 17th, so thats what i'm hoping for.
 
tumblehome
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04/17/2013 03:36PM  
Food for thought,

Based on some of the estimates so far, people are suggesting that these lakes might be ice-free in 20 days. That is just crazy talk.



 
yogi59weedr
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04/17/2013 03:39PM  
Shaguwa may9 gunflint may 13
 
Basspro69
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04/17/2013 03:46PM  
Shag May 17th Gunflint May 19th
 
burntsider
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04/17/2013 04:31PM  
Given the shade from the new monster bird-slaughtering cell tower on the Fernberg, I'd have to guess Shagawa won't clear before May 16 and Gunflint May 17. Lakes to the north of this tower would stay ice covered forever except for the heating effect of the Kawishiwi River which is now already spoiled because of the possibility of underground mining resuming in the area in ten years.
 
04/17/2013 04:43PM  
Shagawa: May 14th.
Gunflint: May 20th.
 
The Great Outdoors
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04/17/2013 05:27PM  
quote PINETREE: "Last year we had a problem with a lot of late entries so a deadline date to enter should be established. Like 10 days or less or whatever Great Outdoors and your side-kick Mocha think it should be."

Good idea!
Why don't we make it midnight, April 30th!
No more guesses or changing dates after that.
 
Miketheflyguy1
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04/17/2013 05:50PM  
Bothm July 21 st !
 
04/17/2013 06:08PM  
wcco just did a nice report on minnetonka ice out(1996 ice out was april 24th) right now open water around some shoreline w/12"-18" of ice, 1 week ago 18"-24" the earliest ice out was 1878 march 11th the latest was 1858 may 8th.... and park rapids has 30" of ice right now....comparing 1996 to this year the opener off the gunflint will be doubtful, the following weekend should be a killer for lake trout YA BABY ! ely much better chance of open lakes on the 11th, off the gunflint reserve your permits for the 17th we did :>)
 
gymsteele
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04/18/2013 07:57AM  
Shagawa May 18th
Gunflint May 23rd
 
04/18/2013 08:04AM  
now add an additional 8-10 inches to the mix ....game changer?
 
Stumpy
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04/18/2013 01:26PM  
Shagawa Lake.......May 24, 2:30 PM
Gunflint Lake......June 1, 2:30 PM

Toss out any guesses that I've made on other threads.
 
04/18/2013 01:34PM  
quote Stumpy: "Shagawa Lake.......May 24, 2:30 PM
Gunflint Lake......June 1, 2:30 PM


Toss out any guesses that I've made on other threads."


Well I guess if your right I better cancel my permit for up the Gunflint I have for the end of May. We all know Stumpy is always right on.
 
04/18/2013 01:41PM  
Shagawa May 17, 2:15pm
Gunflint May 26, 4pm

Snowing hard in the cities right now. Grass was clear yesterday and it rained all night. Go figure.
 
04/18/2013 02:10PM  
June 4th.
June 11th.
 
Basspro69
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04/18/2013 02:38PM  
quote shock: "wcco just did a nice report on minnetonka ice out(1996 ice out was april 24th) right now open water around some shoreline w/12"-18" of ice, 1 week ago 18"-24" the earliest ice out was 1878 march 11th the latest was 1858 may 8th.... and park rapids has 30" of ice right now....comparing 1996 to this year the opener off the gunflint will be doubtful, the following weekend should be a killer for lake trout YA BABY ! ely much better chance of open lakes on the 11th, off the gunflint reserve your permits for the 17th we did :>)"
Cross your fingers and pray for the 17th, that might even be optimistic.
 
bassnut
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04/18/2013 02:52PM  
May 10 for Moss-Duncan.....i hope
 
Surge
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04/18/2013 02:58PM  
As lon as it's before June 7th I'm OK
 
Savage Voyageur
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04/18/2013 03:02PM  
Shagawa, May 16
Gunflint, May 21
 
04/18/2013 03:42PM  
quote bassnut: "May 10 for Moss-Duncan.....i hope"


Last year 2012 I was fishing lake trout on Moss on March 29th before season closed. About half the lake had floating ice and we trolled around it. Lakes like West Bearskin were still solid ice than.
 
04/18/2013 03:44PM  
quote burntsider: "Given the shade from the new monster bird-slaughtering cell tower on the Fernberg, I'd have to guess Shagawa won't clear before May 16 and Gunflint May 17. Lakes to the north of this tower would stay ice covered forever except for the heating effect of the Kawishiwi River which is now already spoiled because of the possibility of underground mining resuming in the area in ten years."


One thing your consistent with your opinions.
 
greenydd
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04/18/2013 05:36PM  
what makes the ice out later on the gunflint than in ely?
 
04/18/2013 05:39PM  
quote greenydd: "what makes the ice out later on the gunflint than in ely? "


Some of that is more deeper lakes on average up the Gunflint, which ice usually goes out a little later, usually a little more snow cover for a longer time so it might be a few degrees cooler longer, and does lake Superior make a difference in the spring and keep it cooler?
 
trailrat
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04/18/2013 05:51PM  
June 9th for both. It's almost a whiteout on Gunflint Lake right now. No end in sight.
 
The Great Outdoors
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04/18/2013 06:48PM  
quote greenydd: "what makes the ice out later on the gunflint than in ely? "

Shagawa Lake is a smaller than Gunflint Lake, so it will be ice free earlier (or should be).
We just picked two lakes, one on each end of the Bdub.
 
Stumpy
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04/18/2013 08:20PM  
quote PINETREE: "
quote Stumpy: "Shagawa Lake.......May 24, 2:30 PM
Gunflint Lake......June 1, 2:30 PM



Toss out any guesses that I've made on other threads."



Well I guess if your right I better cancel my permit for up the Gunflint I have for the end of May. We all know Stumpy is always right on."

I won't be right...I just wanted to pick a June date.
 
04/18/2013 11:22PM  
Going with my favorite day of the year for Shagawa: May 20th

and May 25th for the lost Gunflint lake.
 
04/18/2013 11:42PM  
quote PINETREE: "
quote greenydd: "what makes the ice out later on the gunflint than in ely? "



Some of that is more deeper lakes on average up the Gunflint, which ice usually goes out a little later, usually a little more snow cover for a longer time so it might be a few degrees cooler longer, and does lake Superior make a difference in the spring and keep it cooler?"


Overall -- the climate gets cooler the further E you go into the Arrowhead-- LAke Superior. Now-- not the extremes that I-FAlls get but the coldest avg yearly temperature I BELIEVE is at Gunflint Lake or Pigeon River. Avg spring temps are noticeable cooler in GM (use Cook CTY Airport) then I-FALLS.
 
Wallidave
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04/19/2013 02:00PM  
June 1, 2014 !
 
waterdog
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04/19/2013 03:22PM  
Shag May 31
Gunflint June 7
 
04/19/2013 05:29PM  
Three factors cause later ice-out dates in the eastern BWCA:

1. Proximity to the heat-sink effect of Lake Superior, which delays warm-up.
2. Greater snowfall/snow depth in spring (reflects more sunlight, keeps ice insulated)
3. Higher elevation above sea-level (a small influence)
 
old_salt
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04/19/2013 11:25PM  
Both lakes: July 1. What do I win?
 
halvorsonchristopher1
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04/19/2013 11:48PM  
Shagawa: May 19th
Gunflint: May 26th

I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?

 
04/20/2013 09:37AM  
quote halvorsonchristopher1: "Shagawa: May 19th
Gunflint: May 26th


I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?


"


"ICE BERG RIGHT AHEAD"
 
halvorsonchristopher1
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04/20/2013 01:16PM  
quote mooseplums: "
quote halvorsonchristopher1:
I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?



"



"ICE BERG RIGHT AHEAD""


Solid Reference. But, is that a fair comparision?
If it is, Why would anyone want to paddle through a mine field?

Who has/will paddle through a ice debris filled lake?
 
04/20/2013 01:41PM  
quote halvorsonchristopher1: "Shagawa: May 19th
Gunflint: May 26th


I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?


"
i also posted this pic on another ice out thread. may 9th 1992 from the rog portage looking into seagull, archives said ice when out may 8th we made it from end to end but it took some doing, we paddled through slushy's ,little chunks that sounded like wind chimes and had to break ice along an island to make it to the next open section but i'm sure if you got caught between 2 large ice flows and the wind picked up in an unfavorable direction it could be trouble.(every lake was open after that)
 
bojibob
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04/20/2013 02:44PM  
quote mooseplums: "
quote halvorsonchristopher1: "Shagawa: May 19th
Gunflint: May 26th



I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?



"



"ICE BERG RIGHT AHEAD""
 
The Great Outdoors
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04/20/2013 05:03PM  
quote halvorsonchristopher1: "Shagawa: May 19th
Gunflint: May 26th


I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?


"

No problem, just don't paddle after dark! :)
 
halvorsonchristopher1
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04/21/2013 01:51AM  
quote The Great Outdoors: "
quote halvorsonchristopher1:
I have never paddled on a lake with floating ice. Can this be considered dangerous?



"

No problem, just don't paddle after dark! :)"


Thanks, that's what I wanted to hear.
 
MrBreeze
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04/21/2013 10:22PM  
Gonna be in 80 here this week.

Shagawa May 10th
Gunflint May 14th

I am an optimist.
 
rever
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04/23/2013 10:32AM  
There is a period of warm southerly winds coming.
May 11 for Shag and May 14 for Gunflint. If I am wrong it will be four days more May 15 and May 18.
 
greenydd
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04/23/2013 10:37AM  
if gunflint lake opens up by may 14th, i will be happy cuz that means the smaller lakes we are going in on will be open before that! :o)
 
tumblehome
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04/23/2013 10:49AM  
So you guys are saying that three feet of ice and three feet of snow on top of the ice will all be melted in three weeks. Do you know how crazy that sounds?
 
greenydd
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04/23/2013 10:51AM  
miracles happen every day. :o) besides there's only 20 inches on my lake. :o) i'm not giving up quite yet...
 
04/23/2013 04:25PM  
i see we have 4 or 5 ice out threads going, i'm going to put a positive spin on this thread.?. in early may it can be warmer in the bw than in the cities i've experience a couple openers where it was 90 in the BW and 70's in the cities.i highly doubt open water on the opener(maybe some lakes in the ely area). but i think it can happen the next week sometime by may 17th. with the size and layout of gunflint lake add 7 days? compared to other lakes in that area. i'm liking friday may 17th for seagull/sag to be wide open. and 3 days in a row of above 32* with sun can knock down 3 feet of snow in a hurry. and the days are getting longer. YEH ! ;>)
 
rever
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04/23/2013 08:06PM  
It is going to happen, they are gassing up the solar snow plow today. What date should we pick as the peak of the black fly season?
 
04/24/2013 05:09PM  
so, here is an update on ice depth...

as of Tuesday evening april 23:
20 feet off the gunflint lake boat access: 36 inches of ice and about 2 feet of snow on top of the ice.
this test was done by the volunteer fire department so i'd say it's accurate.

today it was 40 degrees, chilly wind. and it's supposed to snow again tonight. so there you have it!

this is the lake that is used to paddle to entry 57 Magnetic lake (granite river route) and 58 South lake.
 
04/24/2013 05:18PM  
quote Mocha: "so, here is an update on ice depth...


as of Tuesday evening april 23:
20 feet off the gunflint lake boat access: 36 inches of ice and about 2 feet of snow on top of the ice.
this test was done by the volunteer fire department so i'd say it's accurate.


today it was 40 degrees, chilly wind. and it's supposed to snow again tonight. so there you have it!"



Thanks for update.
Mille lacs area talking a high of 77 degrees Monday and a low of 53 degrees. That will create puddles.
 
marsonite
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04/24/2013 09:25PM  
I say we are in uncharted territory here. Past years are no guide.

We have record snow in April, and the melt hasn't even really started. But, we have very warm temps coming at us, combined with long days, and high sun angle. The snow we have is for the most part quite fresh and will melt quickly, adding tons of water to the lakes.

My prediction, based on nothing more than wishful thinking, is that the melt will be shockingly fast. Open water in most places by May 12 (Shagawa too, and the big cold Arrowhead lakes like Gunflint maybe a week later (May 19).

 
05/01/2013 02:40PM  
not for the contest:
i'm thinking may 16 for Gunflint and May 13 for Shagawa

North Brule river along the gunflint trail, same vantage point
april 20, 2013

april 27, 2013

may 1, 2013
 
The Great Outdoors
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05/01/2013 07:42PM  
quote Mocha: "not for the contest:
i'm thinking may 16 for Gunflint and May 13 for Shagawa
"

Sheryl,
The deadline for the guessing was midnight, April 30th.
However, since the judges like you, we will allow the guess! :)
All other guesses are officially sealed!!
 
05/02/2013 05:35PM  
the photos I posted above are of the North Brule river along the gunflint trail. Justine Kerfoot used to say that once the north brule was open then gunflint lake would open 2 weeks later.
we'll see......
 
schweady
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05/02/2013 08:48PM  
Lovely work, Mocha. Thanks for the timeline.
 
Basspro69
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05/02/2013 09:06PM  
quote Mocha: "not for the contest:
i'm thinking may 16 for Gunflint and May 13 for Shagawa


North Brule river along the gunflint trail, same vantage point
april 20, 2013


april 27, 2013


may 1, 2013"

Nice Pictures Thanks Sheryl.
 
05/07/2013 08:07AM  
bump
 
05/07/2013 12:45PM  
Anyone got an update or more pics? Sheryl that river ice disappeared in a blink it seems! Wow.
 
The Great Outdoors
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05/07/2013 10:14PM  
Almost every lake in the Ely area is locked up with ice, and I don't expect even the small ones to be open this weekend unless they have water flowing into them.
 
greenydd
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05/07/2013 10:18PM  
i dont know...this is birch lake today...there is still hope! :o)
 
05/08/2013 06:11AM  
gunflint lake may 7, 2013





gunflint and magnetic lakes may 7, 2013





cross river flowing into Ham lake may 7, 2013






Ham lake ice may 7,2013



snow on trail on the way in. may 7, 2013






spruce grouse momma




spruce grouse daddy




there was still quite a bit of ice on Ham lake, several mallards and 1 LOON!!! the more shaded areas still had plenty of snow, ankle deep and real sugary, but otherwise there was no snow.
lots of scat from wolves, rabbits, grouse; tracks from moose, wolves, fox.

the forecast is for snow/rain mix Friday and Saturday. that precip, combined with some wind would work magic on the ice. it's 41 already this morning.
 
05/08/2013 06:17AM  
Our lake here in Northern Minnesota is opening up fast. I was awaken to the call of the loon all excited to be "home". Our normal ice out date is around the 20th of April, so less than 20 days late this year. It just seems so late because it's been over 30 days early a few years.
 
greenydd
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05/08/2013 06:51AM  
GREAT pictures mocha!! thanx for sharing them.
 
Grandma L
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05/08/2013 06:20PM  
I keep watching the webcams in hopes of open water.

Moose Lake Web cam


Shagawa Web cam
 
05/08/2013 06:42PM  
never?
 
Basspro69
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05/08/2013 06:49PM  
quote Mocha: " gunflint lake may 7, 2013






gunflint and magnetic lakes may 7, 2013






cross river flowing into Ham lake may 7, 2013







Ham lake ice may 7,2013




snow on trail on the way in. may 7, 2013







spruce grouse momma





spruce grouse daddy





there was still quite a bit of ice on Ham lake, several mallards and 1 LOON!!! the more shaded areas still had plenty of snow, ankle deep and real sugary, but otherwise there was no snow.
lots of scat from wolves, rabbits, grouse; tracks from moose, wolves, fox.

the forecast is for snow/rain mix Friday and Saturday. that precip, combined with some wind would work magic on the ice. it's 41 already this morning. "
That second picture down is Spectacular.
 
rever
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05/09/2013 03:32AM  
This late ice out thing, thanks to the wonderful pics, just got cool.
 
greenydd
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05/09/2013 09:24AM  
i just checked the sawbill site. ice went from 23 inches yesterday to 19 today!!! :o)
 
05/09/2013 09:33AM  
quote Mocha: " gunflint lake may 7, 2013



gunflint and magnetic lakes may 7, 2013






cross river flowing into Ham lake may 7, 2013







Ham lake ice may 7,2013




snow on trail on the way in. may 7, 2013







spruce grouse momma





spruce grouse daddy





there was still quite a bit of ice on Ham lake, several mallards and 1 LOON!!! the more shaded areas still had plenty of snow, ankle deep and real sugary, but otherwise there was no snow.
lots of scat from wolves, rabbits, grouse; tracks from moose, wolves, fox.

the forecast is for snow/rain mix Friday and Saturday. that precip, combined with some wind would work magic on the ice. it's 41 already this morning. "






I look at those photo's and I get jealous and am not ashamed of it. Looks and sounds like beauty,peace,clean air and the sound of silence,except for nature.

Reason I brought it up I was in the woods this morning 0.25 to 0.5 miles from a major highway close to where I live. Here I am back in the woods,suppose to be quite and all I hear is car and truck noise and can smell exhaust fumes 0.5 miles away. We don't have the clean air smell we use to have.

Mocha you got all the good things up there.

 
05/09/2013 12:41PM  
Thanks for the cool pics! Come on sun!
 
greenydd
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05/09/2013 02:10PM  
seagull cam on may 7th and today
 
05/09/2013 02:45PM  
that is a very small bay...I wonder what the rest of the lake looks like?
 
greenydd
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05/09/2013 02:51PM  
im sure its all ice but looking at this at least makes me feel good. :o)
 
05/09/2013 03:01PM  
14" @ Sawbill today, down from 19" Yesterday and 23" 2 days ago
 
05/09/2013 03:43PM  

The Sea Gull River was opening up nicely on Tuesday afternoon but Sea Gull Lake was still frozen to the shore and islands. There was just a few feet of open water at the Public landing near SeaGull Outfitters and the edge of the ice looked about one foot thick.
 
05/09/2013 04:49PM  
There is hope:

Sawbill Newsletter

5/9/13 - Big progress! Today's Sawbill Lake ice report: 14".
 
05/11/2013 07:52PM  






The ice on Shagawa as it appeared at 3:00pm on May 11.
 
05/11/2013 09:18PM  
quote Zulu: "




The ice on Shagawa as it appeared at 3:00pm on May 11."



Still in the running,I guessed May 13th for Shagawa.
 
The Great Outdoors
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05/11/2013 09:20PM  
That would mean ice out this Monday!
Ain't lookin' good!
You're close, but that won't count.
 
05/11/2013 09:30PM  
quote The Great Outdoors: "That would mean ice out this Monday!
Ain't lookin' good!
You're close, but that won't count."


I got to midnight Monday. Yeh, I see it might get down to 21 degrees tonight. That won't help.
 
greenydd
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05/12/2013 12:03AM  
ZULU those pictures are beautiful! (even with the ice!) ;o)
 
The Great Outdoors
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05/12/2013 07:02PM  
quote PINETREE: "
quote The Great Outdoors: "That would mean ice out this Monday!
Ain't lookin' good!
You're close, but that won't count."



I got to midnight Monday. Yeh, I see it might get down to 21 degrees tonight. That won't help."

The bad news for you is, that TGO (the Judge Judy of ice out)hits the rack way earlier than that, so anything after 6 pm is considered the next day! :)
 
pswith5
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05/12/2013 07:49PM  
Is it too late to make a guess?? :)
 
05/12/2013 08:08PM  
quote pswith5: "Is it too late to make a guess?? :)"


Wait a couple of days than you can guess.
 
hobbydog
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05/12/2013 08:58PM  
With the clear skies a pretty good Satellite picture from today. It looks lie everything west of Sag is pretty much open.

Modis Image
 
05/14/2013 08:39AM  
Well will Shagawa be ice free today?
TGO are you getting any reports from other lakes in the area opening?
I am waiting? Going to get my canoe ready and hope to head up very soon.
 
Grandma L
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05/14/2013 11:11AM  
Watch the web cams - fun to watch the ice go!
Shagawa from the Grand Ely Lodge

Moose Lake Web cam
 
05/14/2013 05:20PM  
Shagawa ice free?
 
inspector13
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05/14/2013 05:44PM  

I see a boat traveling in front of the camera at 5:44pm.

 
05/14/2013 06:02PM  
Noticed one on Moose lake also on web camera.
 
05/14/2013 06:15PM  
Looks like my ice-out prediction for Shagawa was dead-on. How do I collect my check?
 
05/14/2013 06:43PM  
quote arctic: "Looks like my ice-out prediction for Shagawa was dead-on. How do I collect my check?"


For us Old Timers:
Yogi Berra says the game isn't over to it over.

Don't count your chickens until they hatch.

Your only half right so far. Your estimate for Gunflint lake was?
 
Grandma L
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05/14/2013 08:38PM  
Yeah, the web cam shows Gunflint still having a fair amount of ice.


Gunflint Web Cams
 
05/14/2013 09:21PM  
quote PINETREE: "
quote arctic: "Looks like my ice-out prediction for Shagawa was dead-on. How do I collect my check?"



For us Old Timers:
Yogi Berra says the game isn't over to it over.

Don't count your chickens until they hatch.

Your only half right so far. Your estimate for Gunflint lake was?"


I listed Gunflint Lake's ice-out as 20 May, so I'm still in the running for that one!
 
The Great Outdoors
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05/14/2013 09:44PM  
quote PINETREE: "Shagawa ice free?"

It wasn't as of 3 this afternoon as a surprisingly large sheet of ice still existed on about 1/4th of the lake.
There were boats on it the last two days where the ice was out.
Should be ice free sometime tomorrow.
I'll check it before 7 am, then at noon to see what's happening.
 
The Great Outdoors
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05/14/2013 09:49PM  
quote arctic: "Looks like my ice-out prediction for Shagawa was dead-on. How do I collect my check?"

Sorry, close but no cigar! :)
Read the previous post.
I never thought it would make it through the day with the wind and heat we had.
 
05/14/2013 11:49PM  
Nice view of the moon on the Shagawa webcam right now. :)
 
05/15/2013 05:15AM  
at the narrows of gunflint and magnetic lakes looking south.



Gallagher's Island. still pretty thick ice in the main part of the lake. have to cross gunflint and magnetic to get to the granite river entry 57.



looking east down gunflint lake


gunflint lake from the narrows, looking southeast-ish.





gunflint lake this morning

it was very windy overnight, I thought for sure the lake would be free of ice this morning, but nope! looks like it hardly moved. it's going to be sunny and warm today, we're in a Red Flag warning in terms of wind (erratic and gusty) and the opportunity for fire to spread quickly.
 
QueticoMike
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05/15/2013 05:50AM  
quote Mocha: " at the narrows of gunflint and magnetic lakes looking south.




Gallagher's Island. still pretty thick ice in the main part of the lake. have to cross gunflint and magnetic to get to the granite river entry 57.




looking east down gunflint lake

Thanks for the update Mocha! That wind and the warm temps should get it done today I would hope.



gunflint lake from the narrows, looking southeast-ish.





it was very windy overnight, I thought for sure the lake would be free of ice this morning, but nope! looks like it hardly moved. it's going to be sunny and warm today, we're in a Red Flag warning in terms of wind (erratic and gusty) and the opportunity for fire to spread quickly."
 
The Great Outdoors
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05/15/2013 01:42PM  
quote arctic: "Looks like my ice-out prediction for Shagawa was dead-on. How do I collect my check?"

Your prediction was right on the money.
Checked with my sources that spoke on condition of anonymity, and Shagawa Lake was ice free about 6-7 pm yesterday evening, after the big gusting wind attack that lasted about a half hour came through!
So congratulations PINETREE, your winning prize of absolutely nothing is in the mail!!
However, you must divide it into thirds and share it with Speckled and Arctic who also predicted May 14th.
YAHOOOOOOOOO!!! :)
 
05/15/2013 08:16PM  
just this evening





the wind has been working hard today trying to break up the ice. there is a lot of open water on the Canadian side all along the north shore. the wind pushed it over to the MN side. no rain in site and it's supposed to be warm and sunny again tomorrow.
 
BananaHammock
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05/15/2013 10:19PM  
Is there a consolation prize for those of us that guessed the correct month and year?
 
The Great Outdoors
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05/16/2013 06:25AM  
Yes, yours is in the mail, and should be at your house within the next 4 years! :)
 
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